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Engaging with the ESG opportunity: Renewable Energy

This week, the world’s attention falls on Glasgow for the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26).

To mark the event, Sustainable Global Equities Analyst John Kisenyi has put together a four-part series of articles that consider key parts of the conference’s agenda, and explore the risks and opportunities investors face in meeting the climate challenge.

Here he offers his analysis of where renewable energy fits into the picture, as well as case studies and examples of successful engagement processes.

 

  • Renewables are central to the energy transition
  • Future growth in the sector presents a substantial investment opportunity
  • Potential carbon taxes are an investment risk, but renewables can help mitigate this

This is the first of a four-part series where we’ll consider how investors can embed ESG into their strategies by prioritising material factors, assessing both downside risks and upside opportunities, and pursuing effective engagement policies.

Overall, ESG does not mean sacrificing yields and its principles have a key role to play in both supporting the global transition to net zero and sustainable investing as a whole.

We open this series by discussing renewable energy – but watch this space for material on palm oil, water stress and the physical risks surrounding climate change.


Renewable energy is critical to the climate transition

If the world is to meet the Paris Agreement’s target of limiting global temperature increases to 2°C, the International Renewable Energy Agency has estimated renewable energy sources will need to grow six-fold as a proportion of global consumption: from 10.5% in 2018 to 66% by 2050. This would mean an annual investment of $735 billion USD through to 2050: $22.5 trillion in total[1].

In May 2021 the International Energy Association (IEA) called for the quadrupling of annual wind and solar power capacity from 2020 levels by 2030, growing output to 630GW p.a. from solar and 390GW p.a. from wind.[2]

This shows there is a clear consensus that rapid growth of the renewable sector is critical to decarbonising the global economy.

At COP26, we expect governments to make ambitious pledges around renewable energy capacity and to announce support in the form of tax incentives and subsidies.


What this means for ESG analysis

Increased demand for renewable energy presents opportunities for companies with competitive advantages.

Offshore wind, for example, is a key element of both the European Green Deal and the US American Jobs Plan, which respectively target increases of capacity to 60GW and 30GW by 2030.[3]

Bloomberg New Energy Finance forecasts that cumulative offshore wind installations will grow 17.3% p.a. between 2020 and 2035 (from 36GW to 386GW).[4] This indicates a rapidly expanding total addressable market and creates growth opportunities for companies across the value chain.

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

Embracing renewable energy can also help companies successfully navigate potential regulatory penalties. Leading climate experts have long advocated a carbon tax as the only way to balance the cost externalities of climate change caused by business activity[5].

If implemented, this could have significant financial implications for many industries. Companies with more aggressive targets for transitioning to renewable energy are better insulated from its potential negative impact.

A 2020 CDP report on CA100+ company data notes that power company, ENEL SpA significantly reduced their Scope 1 and 2 emissions (down 50.7% between 2018-20[6]) by shifting away from coal and increasing renewables.[7] This shows the impact on GHG emissions that shifting to renewables can have.

If investors are to facilitate the transition to a decarbonised economy, we need to engage with companies and encourage them to embrace renewables as part of their emissions reduction strategies.

This involves setting firm-wide targets for renewables as percentages of overall energy consumption. We believe this will act as a catalyst for a sustainable transition to a low-carbon economy.


Case Studies

Below are some case studies of how these themes can be considered within ESG analysis:

Orsted is a Danish company that develops, constructs and operates offshore and onshore wind farms. They are the largest in the category globally and are targeting 30GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030 as they grow their footprint in North America, Continental Europe and Asia.

The business expects to add DKK15.2bn ($243m) of EBITDA between 2020 and 2023 through the growth of their renewables business, which represents a material opportunity to gain exposure to in this growing market.[8]

Microsoft is a PC hardware, software, consumer electronics and cloud computing business. The growth of their cloud computing business Azure has put pressure on their GHG emissions due to the energy demands of their data centres. Between 2017 and 2020 their scope 2 emissions/sales (emissions arising from purchased energy as a percentage of sales) rose by an average of 1% a year.[9]

Even though the business has been carbon neutral since 2012 through Renewable Energy Certificate offsets, a carbon tax could have a material negative financial impact.

This downside risk is mitigated by the business implementing an internal carbon tax of $15 per metric ton[10]. The company has also pledged to power 100% of their data centres from renewable energy by 2025, making Azure a more attractive product to clients and insulating them further from carbon related measures.


Pushing for renewable energy targets

During our engagement discussions with companies, we have encouraged them to publish  targets for renewable energy as a percentage of their overall energy mix (as opposed to a discrete MW capacity target) and will continue to do so.

Examples from various sectors include:

  • January 2021: Zebra Technologies Corp - mobile computing and printing technology business, US
  • February 2021: Thermo Fisher Scientific - medical instruments, US
  • March 2021: TJX Companies - discount retailer, US
  • March 2021: Home Depot - retailer, US


Conclusion

The rapid growth of the renewables space presents both risks and opportunities for investors.

Investors should tactically take advantage of the growing market, while engaging with companies to encourage them to more fully embrace this sustainable energy source.

[1]https://irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2020/Apr/IRENA_GRO_Summary_2020.pdf 
[2]https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/beceb956-0dcf-4d73-89fe-1310e3046d68/NetZeroby2050-ARoadmapfortheGlobalEnergySector_CORR.pdf
[3]https://congress.gov; https://whitehouse.org  
[4] Bloomberg New Energy Finance – H1 2021 Offshore Wind Market Outlook 
[5]https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2019/12/the-case-for-carbon-taxation-and-putting-a-price-on-pollution-parry.htm 
[6] ENEL SpA Sustainability Report 2020 - https://www.enel.com/content/dam/enel-com/documenti/investitori/sostenibilita/2020/sustainability-report_2020.pdf 
[7] 2020 CDP Analysis of CA100+ Company Data - https://6fefcbb86e61af1b2fc4-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/005/312/original/Analysis_of_CA100__Data_for_CDP_Investor_Signatories_v5.pdf?1596046258 
[8] Orsted 2020 CDP Climate report
[9] Microsoft 2020 Environmental Sustainability Report: https://query.prod.cms.rt.microsoft.com/cms/api/am/binary/RWyG1q

[10]https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2020/01/16/microsoft-will-be-carbon-negative-by-2030/

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